Scenario Planning

What if it rains? What if 20 people come instead of 10? What if the power goes out? Planning for multiple scenarios means you're ready for anything. Planning for multiple possible futures is a critical thinking skill that separates careful thinkers from careless ones. Why does this matter? Planning for multiple possible futures is a skill that will help you in school, in friendships, and in solving real-world problems. People who master this skill make better decisions and understand the world more clearly. Here's the process: Step 1 — Define the challenge. What exactly are you trying to figure out? Being specific about the question is half the battle. Step 2 — Gather information. What facts do you have? What might be missing? Not all information is equally useful — focus on what's relevant. Step 3 — Consider multiple options. Don't stop at your first idea. Challenge yourself to think of at least three alternatives. Often the best answer is one you didn't think of immediately. Step 4 — Evaluate your options. What are the pros and cons of each? What evidence supports each one? Which option has the strongest reasoning behind it? Step 5 — Make your choice and explain your reasoning. "I think ___ because ___" is the formula. Being able to explain your thinking is just as important as getting the right answer. Step 6 — Reflect. Was your approach effective? What would you do differently next time? This reflection step is how good thinkers become great thinkers.