Correlation vs Causation

Ice cream sales and shark attacks both increase in summer. Does ice cream CAUSE shark attacks? No! Both are caused by a third thing — hot weather brings people to beaches AND makes them want ice cream. Why does this matter? Just because two things happen together doesn't mean one causes the other is a skill that will help you in school, in friendships, and in solving real-world problems. People who master this skill make better decisions and understand the world more clearly. Here's the process: Step 1 — Define the challenge. What exactly are you trying to figure out? Being specific about the question is half the battle. Step 2 — Gather information. What facts do you have? What might be missing? Not all information is equally useful — focus on what's relevant. Step 3 — Consider multiple options. Don't stop at your first idea. Challenge yourself to think of at least three alternatives. Often the best answer is one you didn't think of immediately. Step 4 — Evaluate your options. What are the pros and cons of each? What evidence supports each one? Which option has the strongest reasoning behind it? Step 5 — Make your choice and explain your reasoning. "I think ___ because ___" is the formula. Being able to explain your thinking is just as important as getting the right answer. Step 6 — Reflect. Was your approach effective? What would you do differently next time? This reflection step is how good thinkers become great thinkers.